The 2022 general election is approximately 100 days away.
Current trends point to a red wave, but there is danger in resting easy and making assumptions.
Stranger things have happened …
Plan for a robust, cross-channel turnout operation, no matter what the polls say, to capitalize on the GOP base’s enthusiasm.
Using available data and modeling, the Majority Strategies data team has identified a number of audiences of vulnerable GOP voters who are at risk of staying home in the fall and may need specific messaging treatments to ensure they turnout.
These audience examples include:
GOP GOTV – Fix Economy Targets
Mid/Low Prop GOP voters who strongly believe the Republican Party is better equipped to fix the economy.
GOP GOTV – Election Integrity Targets
Mid/Low Prop GOP voters who are deeply concerned about election integrity.
GOP GOTV – Past AB/EV Voters
Mid/Low Prop GOP voters who have previously voted early by mail or early in person.
GOP Presidential Year Only Voters
Mid/Low Prop GOP voters who despite being registered for previous mid-terms, have only voted in Presidential Year general elections.
Trump Lift Voters
Mid/Low Prop GOP voters who continue to strongly support Donald Trump and could be less inclined to vote without Trump on the ballot.
GOP Party Shifters
Registered voters who in 2021 were modeled as persuadable (weak Dem/swing/weak GOP) but are now currently modeled as firm GOP supporters.
While the goal of turnout is universal with all of these voters, each individual audience could benefit from a unique message. For example, the GOP GOTV – Fix Economy Targets would be more apt to receive an economic/inflation-themed message while the GOP Party Shifter will require a more nuanced turnout message to ensure they cast a ballot in this upcoming election.
Our team can prepare a report specific to your district outlining the vulnerable GOP audience counts and demographic highlights. Contact us today to get started.