elctions

The Enthusiasm Gap

If the enthusiasm gap continues, campaigns may need to reallocate resources. Instead of focusing solely on high-turnout, staunch Republicans who are likely to vote, more emphasis should be placed on lean GOP and conservative-leaning Independent voters who need targeted GOTV messaging.

Recent polls indicate positive momentum for Republicans.

Following President Joe Biden’s challenging debate performance and the failed assassination attempt on former President Donald J. Trump, Republicans are highly motivated. National polls show that 45% of Republican voters are extremely enthusiastic about voting in November, compared to only 17% of Independent voters. Additionally, nearly 40% of Independent voters are not enthusiastic at all about voting. (YouGov, 7/13/24-7/16/24)

While this is certainly good news for Republicans, it’s important to consider the broader context.

Independent voters remain largely unenthusiastic about voting. These voters are more disengaged from the political process than ever before, requiring additional efforts to encourage their participation.

Lean Republican voters are also part of this predicament.

The enthusiasm of Republican voters may not be sufficient in districts where Independents are crucial for securing victory.

Therefore, it is essential to include Independent and lean GOP voters in get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts. These voters need to be encouraged to participate in the November elections, especially in down-ballot and local races where they may not be as informed as they are about presidential and statewide contests.

Campaigns should continue to monitor this trend to see if it persists into the fall. Given the unpredictable nature of this political season, things can change quickly.

If the enthusiasm gap continues, campaigns may need to reallocate resources. Instead of focusing solely on high-turnout, staunch Republicans who are likely to vote, more emphasis should be placed on lean GOP and conservative-leaning Independent voters who need targeted GOTV messaging.

We will continue to monitor this trend and share suggestions and recommendations with our clients and partners.

Questions? Want to get started planning your voter contact campaign? Contact the Majority Strategies team today.