Political experts think so but it will take more than momentum to win.
The critical first step to victory is running a highly-targeted primary campaign.
One primary voter is not like the other, though. That’s important to remember when preparing campaign budgets and voter contact plans.
Treating primary voters like a monolith would be a big mistake.
Instead, campaigns need to identify subsets of primary voters who will be most receptive to your specific messaging. That may mean identifying audiences by their demographics or geography. Or it may mean creating subsets of primary voters based on issues.
In this #StrategySession, the Majority Strategies data team takes a closer look at some of the audiences we can build and analyze for campaigns facing a competitive primary race.
AUDIENCE EXAMPLE: Frequent GOP Primary Voters
Pennsylvania SD32
Here’s an example of a legislative district where nearly 27,000 voters can be described as frequent GOP primary voters. Of those 27,000 voters, the majority are older, and over half identify as sportsmen. 26% are working-class voters.
On the issues, 98% oppose defunding the police. 97% support strong immigration policy.
This audience is prime for an awareness and name ID campaign.
AUDIENCE EXAMPLE: Low-Propensity GOP Primary Voters
Cuyahoga County, Ohio
Nearly 57,000 voters in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, can be described as low-propensity GOP primary voters. These voters are likely to vote in the upcoming general but not in the upcoming primary.
Younger than traditional primary voters, 67% of these voters strongly disapprove of President Biden’s job performance. Healthcare and fiscal issues are top concerns.
This audience would benefit from a turnout campaign.
AUDIENCE EXAMPLE: Frequent Primary Voters – GOP/Contested Subset
California CD49
Over 72,000 households comprise this universe of frequent primary voters who are not modeled as strong Democrats.
These voters lean older and more male, with 66% identifying as fiscal conservatives. Top issues include opposing defunding the police and opposing Medicare-for-all.
This audience is prime for awareness and persuasion.
Want to learn more about primary voters in your district? Contact the Majority Strategies team today to get started.